The ATM example is the most instructive one here. The technology everyone feared didn't deliver the predicted outcome but a wholly different force did, thirty years later.
Which is exactly why scoring business quality on current fundamentals matters more than predicting disruption winners. The companies with durable margins, strong ROIC, and deep customer relationships are the ones Cosmo describes as anti-fragile. Those characteristics show up in the numbers before the narrative catches up.
The distinction between "disrupted" and "disruptor" is always obvious in hindsight. In the fundamentals, it's visible earlier.
Then there are all the new jobs that involve fixing the broken AI. If I remember the story correctly, in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, the Dad lost his job to machines. Then he got rehired to fix the machines that kept breaking down. Different role, but a valuable job nonetheless.
The ATM example is the most instructive one here. The technology everyone feared didn't deliver the predicted outcome but a wholly different force did, thirty years later.
Which is exactly why scoring business quality on current fundamentals matters more than predicting disruption winners. The companies with durable margins, strong ROIC, and deep customer relationships are the ones Cosmo describes as anti-fragile. Those characteristics show up in the numbers before the narrative catches up.
The distinction between "disrupted" and "disruptor" is always obvious in hindsight. In the fundamentals, it's visible earlier.
The world keeps changing and we have to strive to change with it.
Then there are all the new jobs that involve fixing the broken AI. If I remember the story correctly, in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, the Dad lost his job to machines. Then he got rehired to fix the machines that kept breaking down. Different role, but a valuable job nonetheless.
Great example. Apparently, those toothpaste capping machines kept breaking down! 😄