Great writing and storytelling, Cosmo. It has been wild seeing companies do this too. Even wilder that investors buy into it. Some cases make sense but not all. Since Sir John Templeton thinks 1/5 are true = 0.2 so also supports the 80/20 rule which means that’s probably about right. That one in five actually turn that hype story into numbers that actually prove the story is true. Haha.
Thank you! And I like the 80/20 connection. I wonder if Templeton was invoking Pareto or stumbled onto it independently. In any event, the hard part is that the one in five rarely announces itself in advance.
Hey Cosmo, when I saw the news yesterday about Allbirds, I immediately thought about the chapter in your book where you talk about all the examples of this happening in the past. I loved that section!
Seeing them change the name to join the AI hype, plus seeing that they are using convertible debt, is dubious to say the least. As you say, learn from history!
Thank you! The fact that you connected the Allbirds news directly to the book before even reading the article tells me Chapter 11 did its job. That's exactly the kind of pattern recognition my partner was talking about.😎
You're right, this kind of rebranding almost never works out. But how about Microstrategy? Michael Saylor pulled off a complete transformation. Gamestop had an opportunity to make something out of all the retail support that squeezed the short sellers. Can anybody else come up with examples of when this worked and was not just a way to shake down investors?
Great examples and great question. MicroStrategy is probably the strongest case for the Templeton exception. Saylor didn't just change the name, he made a real, billion-dollar commitment to the underlying asset, and Bitcoin delivered. Whether it sustains is still an open question, but it's a genuine transformation, not a press release.
Great writing and storytelling, Cosmo. It has been wild seeing companies do this too. Even wilder that investors buy into it. Some cases make sense but not all. Since Sir John Templeton thinks 1/5 are true = 0.2 so also supports the 80/20 rule which means that’s probably about right. That one in five actually turn that hype story into numbers that actually prove the story is true. Haha.
Thank you! And I like the 80/20 connection. I wonder if Templeton was invoking Pareto or stumbled onto it independently. In any event, the hard part is that the one in five rarely announces itself in advance.
Hey Cosmo, when I saw the news yesterday about Allbirds, I immediately thought about the chapter in your book where you talk about all the examples of this happening in the past. I loved that section!
Seeing them change the name to join the AI hype, plus seeing that they are using convertible debt, is dubious to say the least. As you say, learn from history!
Thank you! The fact that you connected the Allbirds news directly to the book before even reading the article tells me Chapter 11 did its job. That's exactly the kind of pattern recognition my partner was talking about.😎
Brilliant article. Sounds like they should have turned in to a marketing company.
You're right, this kind of rebranding almost never works out. But how about Microstrategy? Michael Saylor pulled off a complete transformation. Gamestop had an opportunity to make something out of all the retail support that squeezed the short sellers. Can anybody else come up with examples of when this worked and was not just a way to shake down investors?
Great examples and great question. MicroStrategy is probably the strongest case for the Templeton exception. Saylor didn't just change the name, he made a real, billion-dollar commitment to the underlying asset, and Bitcoin delivered. Whether it sustains is still an open question, but it's a genuine transformation, not a press release.