Markets reward luck and punish discipline more often than we admit. Why judging decisions by outcomes quietly sabotages investors — and how to escape the trap.
This is such a vital reminder. 'Escaping the Outcome Illusion requires a simple but powerful shift: separate decision quality from outcome quality.'
We often let a 'lucky' result trick us into thinking we have a bulletproof process, or conversely, let a bad outcome discourage a perfectly rational choice. Analyzing the reasoning behind the move, rather than just the scoreboard, is the only way to truly improve over time.
This illusion is a real risk for people that haven't lived through a few natural cycles of the market where the down turns humble us. Great analogies to remind us all that sometimes luck feels like skill.
Thanks, Christina. The market has a way of mistiming its lessons. It humbles you right after you've convinced yourself you've figured it out. The tricky part is that luck doesn't announce itself. It just quietly accepts credit for your 'genius' until the cycle turns.
This is such a vital reminder. 'Escaping the Outcome Illusion requires a simple but powerful shift: separate decision quality from outcome quality.'
We often let a 'lucky' result trick us into thinking we have a bulletproof process, or conversely, let a bad outcome discourage a perfectly rational choice. Analyzing the reasoning behind the move, rather than just the scoreboard, is the only way to truly improve over time.
This illusion is a real risk for people that haven't lived through a few natural cycles of the market where the down turns humble us. Great analogies to remind us all that sometimes luck feels like skill.
Thanks, Christina. The market has a way of mistiming its lessons. It humbles you right after you've convinced yourself you've figured it out. The tricky part is that luck doesn't announce itself. It just quietly accepts credit for your 'genius' until the cycle turns.